Tom & Nan Dot Com

As I write this there is an area of low pressure about 500 miles NE of the Leeward Islands with a 20% chance of becoming a “subtropical” cyclone in the next 48 hours. That said, today is the last day of the 2011 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. How did we fare this year?

In August, Dr. Gray issued an update to his seasonal forecast.  In it he called for 9 hurricanes with 5 of them being major hurricanes.  He called for 16 named storms, down one from his June 2011 forecast of 17 named storms. Meanwhile, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) also updated their outlook for the season too.  In it they called for 14 – 19 named storms, 7 –10 hurricanes, and 3 – 5 major hurricanes.

How many named storms did we actually get?

Storm Name	Dates	Max Wind (MPH)
TS Arlene	20 June – 1 July	65
TS Bret	17 – 22 July	65
TS Cindy	20 – 22 July	70
DS Don	27 – 30 July	50
TS Emily	1 – 7 August	50
TS Franklin	12 – 13 August	45
TS Gert	13 – 16 August	65
TS Harvey	19 – 22 August	60
MH Irene	20 – 28 August	120
TS Jose	28 – 29 August	45
MH Katia	29 August – 10 September	135
TS Lee	2 – 5 September	60
H Maria	6 – 16 September	80
H Nate (1)	7 – 11 September	70
MH Ophelia	21 September – 3 October	140
H Philipe	24 September – 9 October	90
H Rina	23 – 28 October	110
TS Sean	7 – 11 November	65 (2)

Note 1. Hurricane Nate was upgraded during post-storm analysis to hurricane status. I haven’t seen the maximum observed wind on Nate so I’ve left the 70mph number as is.

Note 2. The strongest report I can find on maximum sustained winds in TS Sean were 65mph. NHC has not yet issued their final summary on the season, so I’ll update this post if 65mph was NOT the maximum wind for this storm.

Scorecard

I count 18 named storms though I’ve seen attempts by others in other places to count Tropical Depression 10 as a named storm.  My scorecard for the early forecasts:

	CPC	Dr. Gray	Actual
Number Named	14 – 19	16	18
Hurricanes	7 – 10	9	6
Maj Hurricanes	3 – 5	5	3

While we had more than the average number of named storms, our number of actual hurricanes was about average.  The increased number of named storms can be attributed to better sensing technology, modeling capabilities, and forecasting abilities. Four of the named storms had winds of 50 miles per hour (or less) many of which might not have been caught 20 or 30 years ago.

As far as storms go, my philosophy is that it’s better to be prepared and not have a storm rather than not be prepared and actually getting one.  I like to attempt to try to forecast where they will go before the National Hurricane Center starts issuing forecasts on them… I did that last year and again this year.  My best forecast was for Irene.  I predicted it would “Rake the east coast” with a landfall in North Carolina approximately a week before it did… was my best attempt at forecasting a hurricane ever.

What’s Ahead?

Storm names for 2012 from the National Hurricane Center:

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sandy
Tony
Valerie
William

Our next hurricane season begins in just 185 days… Are you ready? If not follow the old scout motto of “Be Prepared” so make a plan and be ready!

We took a trip over the Thanksgiving Holiday to Pulaski, Tennessee.  Pulaski has a rich history and ties to the US Civil War. Pulaski is the county seat of Giles County. It’s city square features a courthouse that was built in 1859.

Pulaski is the site where Union soldiers hung Sam Davis. Sam Davis was a Confederate scout who saw action at Cheat Mountain, Shenendoah, Shiloh, and Perryville. He was captured by Union forces near Minor Hill, Tennessee on November 20th, 1863 and was hung on November 27th 1863, his 21st birthday.  There is a statue of Sam Davis on the south side of the courthouse square in Pulaski.

Pulaski was also the original birthplace of the Ku Klux Klan, founded in 1865 by group of former Confederate soldiers. One of our geocaching adventures took us here.

We’ve been to Pulaski several times over the years and the old section of town hasn’t changed much, but the city has expanded to the southwest a bit and now is home to a Home Depot and a Super Wal-mart store. US-64, the main east-west highway through Pulaski, was recently 4-laned and goes past the site of the Bodenham School. Bodenham was a K-12 school that operated here from 1928 to 1978. The school was closed and schools in the county were centralized with 2 High Schools remaining in Giles County.

The only parts of the school that remain are parts of the foundation for the main building and  second building that is now a day care.

So, how would I know so much about the area? I lived in Giles County off and on in the late 1970s and early 1980s. My dad bought land here and built a log cabin and is buried not far up the road from where he lived. I attended Bodenham for part of the 7th grade, moved away and attended Giles County High for 2 years. Since my Dad died, my mom has moved to the area.  Two of my brothers are graduates of Giles County High School. I visit as often as I can and enjoy Geocaching in the area, I like driving the windy country roads, which were all dirt when I lived there as a teenager but have all since been paved. I like the friendliness of the people and still have friends that live in the area. I’ve never lived anywhere else where people, total strangers to me, wave a friendly hello as we drive past each other on the back-roads; I wave back!

So why am I posting this to our long neglected site for our family and friends to view??? I took all the photographs that I’m posting here at the request of a co-worker of Nan’s, Miss Pat. Miss Pat almost bought a house in Giles County years ago and was surprised to hear that we visit often. She asked that we take some pictures so here are the best of the rest of the photos I took in Pulaski for Miss Pat.